Spatial Dependence Modeling of Wind Resource under Uncertainty Using C-Vine Copulas and Its Impact on Solar-Wind Energy Co-Generation

Abstract

Investments in wind and solar power are driven by the aim to maximize the utilization of renewable energy (RE). This results in an increased concentration of wind farms at locations with higher average wind speeds and of solar panel installations at sites with higher average solar insolation. This is unfavourable for energy suppliers and for the overall economy when large power output fluctuations occur. Thus, when evaluating investment options for spatially distributed RE systems, it is necessary to model resource fluctuations and power output correlations between locations. In this paper, we propose a methodology for analyzing the spatial dependence, accurate modeling, and forecasting of wind power systems with special consideration to spatial dispersion of installation sites. We combine vine-copulas with the Kumaraswamy distribution to improve accuracy in forecasting wind power from spatially dispersed wind turbines and to model solar power generated at each location. We then integrate these methods to formulate an optimization model for allocating wind turbines and solar panels spatially, with an end goal of maximizing overall power generation while minimizing the variability in power output. A case study of wind and solar power systems in Central Ontario, Canada is also presented.