| dc.description.abstract | The industrialized food system poses significant human health challenges, while simultaneously
compromising planetary boundaries that we depend on for human flourishing. In 2019, the Canada Food
Guide was updated to represent a more nutritious and environmentally sustainable diet, consistent with the
2019 EAT-Lancet Report’s Planetary Health Diet recommendations surrounding the human and planetary
health nexus. Both recommendations notably put less emphasis on meats and dairy, and more emphasis on
plant-based protein and fresh vegetables and fruits. One way to encourage the transition to more nutritious
food consumption is to develop and enhance the regional food environment. The food environment
determines in part what the population eats, and in turn, drives demand. ‘Food environments’ are created
by social environments and are the physical, social, economic, cultural, and political factors that impact the
accessibility, availability, and adequacy of food within a community or region (Rideout et al., 2015). They
are often responsible for affecting how consumers make food decisions. COVID-19 exposed vulnerabilities
in our industrialized just-in-time system, including challenges in food security and optimal nutrition as
import-dependent foods faced risks in supply due to labour and supply chain disruptions. Increased political
attention on local and regional self-sufficiency at regional and national scales may offer a solution to
enhance resilience within socio-ecological systems. An optimum nutritional environment (ONE)
assessment bridges nutritional needs with environmental sustainability through regional planning. For this
thesis, a case study foodshed analysis of Waterloo Region (WR), Ontario, was conducted in order to
understand the potential for regional sufficiency in nutrient-dense food (according to the 2019 Canadian
Food Guide guidelines). The nutritional requirements were then compared to the local production capacity
for the population in 2020 and the projected population in 2040 and 2060. The research objectives were (1)
to estimate the quantity of locally grown vegetables, fruits, legumes, and whole grains needed to meet the
Region of Waterloo population’s optimal nutritional requirements in 2020, 2040, and 2060; (2) to estimate
how much of these healthy food requirements for the WR population could realistically be produced
through regional agriculture by the year 2040 and 2060.
This study used Canadian databases to quantify and predict the opportunities and potential for WR
to meet its growing population's nutritional needs within regional boundaries. The results show that
consumption and production levels in fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and plant-based protein are
insufficient in 2020, 2040 and 2060. There were changes in comparison to the 2006 and 2019 Canada Food
Guide’s recommendations, specifically a reduction in starchy vegetables, wheat and oats, and an increase
of tree nuts and meat alternatives. Agricultural land requirements that align with nutritional
recommendations could be met with a 4% conversion of current agricultural land in use in 2040 and 6% in
2060. One possibility to meet these recommendations is converting land that is currently dedicated to soy
and corn production. One limitation of the study is the exclusion of livestock and dairy, which contributes
to a large proportion of land use. This study contributes to current foodshed analysis research, providing a
replicable case study methodology for other regions to identify the current status of local food provisioning
and its relationship to nutritional needs, as well as to predict and plan for future scenarios with an enhanced
food environment. This research suggests that collaborative and simultaneous effort from various
stakeholders is needed to support the transition to sustainable diets in Waterloo Region. | en |
