Spatial and Temporal Discounting in a Social-Climate Model

Abstract

This thesis analyzes how individuals' devaluation of distant impacts of climate change affects mitigation behaviours and projected climate conditions. To approach this question, spatial and temporal discounting is applied to a coupled social-climate model. This model represents a two-way feedback between human decision-making, social norms, and human behaviour with changes in the climate. This is achieved through coupling an evolutionary game theoretic model of opinion dynamics and a simple Earth System Model. The results showed that shifting from current-looking to future-looking behaviours (preferring lower discounting scenarios) and considering multiple locations and population groups, supports a higher proportion of the population choosing mitigation strategies. This shift produces a pathway to reducing temperature anomalies and carbon dioxide emissions. However, the approach to a better state of the climate is best achieved by targeting both discounting and social behaviours rather than just one or the other. These results highlight the benefits of including human behaviour in climate models and the need for a more multifaceted approach to mitigating the negative effects of climate change.