Is Fiji’s Metabolism Built for Resilience? A Socio-Metabolic Risk Perspective.

Abstract

Small Island Developing States (SIDS), despite contributing less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, are among the most affected by the climate crisis. They face rising sea levels and climate-related economic losses averaging 2.1% of GDP, seven times the global average. This vulnerability is not limited to environmental exposure; it is further intensified by compounding factors such as a heavy reliance on external resources and limited material circularity. Most SIDS import over 60% of their food, and nearly all fossil fuels and construction materials, leaving them highly exposed to global supply chain disruptions and price fluctuations. To analyze this nexus of environmental and economic fragility, the Socio-Metabolic Risk (SMR) concept links a nation’s resilience to its material metabolism, its patterns of resource extraction, trade, consumption, and waste. SMR assesses risk across three pillars: secure resource access, circular material use, and equitable distribution of services. While pioneering studies have validated SMR's utility, applications remain limited to single-year snapshots. This leaves a critical gap, as a static view cannot capture the path-dependent dynamics, material lock-ins, and potential tipping points that evolve over time. Addressing this gap, this thesis uses Fiji as a case study to ask: Has the country’s material use from 2000 to 2022 mitigated or accumulated its SMR? To answer this, the study constructs the first multi-decadal (2000–2022), economy-wide material flow analysis (ew-MFA) mass balance account from a SMR lens, for a SIDS. Over two decades, Fiji underwent a profound metabolic transformation. Domestic biomass extraction, once the economy's cornerstone, fell by 42% (driven by a decline in the sugarcane industry), while biomass imports surged by 80%, eroding food self-sufficiency. Concurrently, imports of non-metallic minerals (e.g., cement, aggregates) increased more than fivefold (+436%), with surges for reconstruction following major cyclones like Cyclone Winston in 2016. Reliance on imported fossil fuels remained absolute, with total inflows growing by 26%. Fiji's overall import dependency climbed from 27% in 2000 to 46% in 2022. The analysis also shows a steady buildup of material assets, likely concentrated in hazard-prone coastal areas. This occurs within an overwhelmingly linear system, where material circularity is negligible and recycling practices are largely absent. The study concludes that Fiji’s development path has intensified its SMR, creating a material lock-in marked by growing reliance on imports and limited progress toward circular resource use. This creates a vicious cycle where climate shocks destroy vulnerable stocks, driving further import-heavy reconstruction that deepens vulnerability. By operationalizing SMR with a longitudinal dataset, this research provides a robust empirical foundation for evidence-based policy. The findings highlight the urgent need for interventions aligned with Fiji’s national development goals to strengthen the circular economy, accelerate the transition to renewable energy, promote local food systems, and enforce disaster-resilient 'build-back-better' standards. Ultimately, steering SIDS toward a more sustainable and resilient future requires a fundamental transformation of their resource use patterns.