Analyzing the Cauvery River Dispute Using a Systems of Systems Approach

Abstract

The Cauvery River conflict in southern India is a water-sharing dispute that has persisted for over a century. Over the last thirty years, the conflict has been exacerbated due to climate change, and population explosion. Addressing this long-standing conflict requires a comprehensive approach. This thesis employs a systems-of-systems (SoS) methodology to analyze the hydrological, socio-economic, and governance systems of the Cauvery River basin, aiming to provide a deeper understanding of this complex conflict. As the provinces of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu dominate the basin, their roles as primary decision-makers are central to resolving the dispute.

The thesis integrates systems-of-systems analysis, graph theory, document analysis, and hydrological modeling. Valuable insights are drawn from government reports and legal contexts, unveiling the historical priorities and biases of stakeholders. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) method is used to create a conceptual hydrological model of the Cauvery River basin. Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis is employed to understand the complex socio-economic interactions in the basin and generate consistent scenarios. These consistent scenarios are useful in identifying descriptors or systems that are most influential in possibly resolving this conflict. Finally, a Decision Support System (DSS) called Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is developed that uses the outputs of CIB and demonstrates how a resolution may be achieved.

WEAP analysis provided the measure of unmet demand in the Cauvery River basin, and how it affects agricultural productivity. CIB analysis yielded many consistent scenarios, however, after further analysis, a few systems emerged that were more influential in the system than the others. Managing water demand in Karnataka and managing water supply in Tamil Nadu were among the most active descriptors in the analysis. Increasing governmental effectiveness, and reduction of corruption were the other important descriptors from the CIB analysis. GMCR proposes resolutions based on the decision-maker's options and preferences. Cooperative efforts and improved governmental effectiveness emerge as compelling solutions. The analysis identifies unmet basin demands critical for decision-making. The research emphasizes the importance of communication and governance improvements, highlighting the potential for a rapid and amicable resolution between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

The study underscores the effectiveness of systems-of-systems methodology in analyzing intricate issues. Future work could involve participatory approaches for judgment score calculations and expert elicitation to enhance research outcomes. As climate change impacts intensify, such methodologies become increasingly vital for crafting sustainable solutions to global challenges. In conclusion, this research showcases the significance of systems-of-systems analysis for understanding and resolving complex problems. The proposed standard operating procedures offer a valuable framework for researchers addressing intricate issues. As the urgency of climate change grows, the utilization of such methodologies becomes paramount for devising effective and sustainable global solutions.