The Intentional Base-on-ball Phenomenon in Baseball: A Statistical Analysis and Strategic Recommendations

Abstract

The game of baseball is amenable to a variety of strategies that affect short-term outcomes. This paper employs regression analysis, simulation, and cognitive analysis of mental biases to analyze the strategic scenario known as the "Intentional Base-on-Balls" and proposes a model to explain that strategy and predict its effectiveness. <br /><br /> The results of this study suggest that managers are prone to Type II errors, that is, issuing an Intentional Base-on-Ball in a situation where objective analysis suggests otherwise. Results further suggest that the ratio of Type I errors to Type II errors is disproportional to the ratio of their respective costs. This imbalance points to a subjective component to the decision-making process, one that can be explained by biases and cognitive errors. <br /><br /> The results and model described in this paper may allow managers to avoid future mistakes and improve their decision-making ability.