Greenhouse Gas Emissions cuts, a set of fuel-based mitigation wedges in Canada

Abstract

To combat climate change, a global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy and low-carbon systems is necessary. The energy sector plays a pivotal role in this transition. This thesis aims to guide the Canadian oil and gas (O&G) industry in developing investment strategies for transitioning to renewable energy sources, supporting the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan.

Mitigation wedges provide an accessible framework for understanding emissions-reducing actions. This thesis derives a set of mitigation wedges for transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy, which can be applied in designing O&G companies' strategies towards achieving Canada's GHG emissions reductions. Quantitative methods and statistical analysis are applied to a balanced panel dataset collected from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) website, including information on provinces, territories, and the entire country from 2005 to 2050, with historical data up to 2020.

The study demonstrates that end-use energy demand for natural gas in the industrial and transport sectors and refined petroleum products in the industrial and residential sectors positively impacts GHG emissions reduction in the O&G industry. These four mitigation wedges can significantly contribute to the Canadian O&G industry's GHG emissions target of 42% below 2019 levels. This research offers valuable insights for decision-makers at industry and policy levels to support a successful transition to a low-carbon economy.