Evaluating Wind Power Generating Capacity Adequacy Using MCMC Time Series Model
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In recent decades, there has been a dramatic increase in utilizing renewable energy resources by many power utilities around the world. The tendency toward using renewable energy resources is mainly due to the environmental concerns and fuel cost escalation associated with conventional fossil generation. Among renewable resources, wind energy is a proven source for power generation that positively contributes to global, social, and economic environments. Nowadays, wind energy is a mature, abundant, and emission-free power generation technology, and a significant percentage of electrical power demand is supplied by wind. However, the intermittent nature of wind generation introduces various challenges for both the operation and planning of power systems. One of the problems of increasing the use of wind generation can be seen from the reliability assessment point of view. Indeed, there is a recognized need to study the contribution of wind generation to overall system reliability and to ensure the adequacy of generation capacity. Wind power generation is different than conventional generation (i.e., fossil-based) in that wind power is variable and non-controllable, which can affect power system reliability. Therefore, modeling wind generation in a reliability assessment calls for reliable stochastic simulation techniques that can properly handle the uncertainty and precisely reflect the variable characteristics of the wind at a particular site. The research presented in this thesis focuses on developing a reliable and appropriate model for the reliability assessment of power system generation, including wind energy sources. This thesis uses the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) technique due to its ability to produce synthetic wind power time series data that sufficiently consider the randomness of the wind along with keeping the statistical and temporal characteristics of the measured data. Thereafter, the synthetic wind power time series based on MCMC is coupled with a probabilistic sequential methodology for conventional generation in order to assess the overall adequacy of generating systems. The study presented in this thesis is applied to two test systems, designated the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) and the IEEE Reliability Test System (IEEE-RTS). A wide range of reliability indices are then calculated, including loss of load expectation (LOLE), loss of energy expectation (LOEE), loss of load frequency (LOLF), energy not supplied per interruption (ENSPI), demand not supplied per interruption (DNSPI), and expected duration per interruption (EDPI). To show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, a further study is conducted to compare the obtained reliability indices using the MCMC model and the ARMA model, which is often used in reliability studies. The methodologies and the results illustrated in this thesis aim to provide useful information to planners or developers who endeavor to assess the reliability of power generation systems that contain wind generation.