Betting on the Unexpected: The Effect of Expectation Matching on Choice Strategies in a Binary Choice Task

Loading...
Thumbnail Image

Date

2012-02-17T19:47:25Z

Authors

James, Greta

Advisor

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

University of Waterloo

Abstract

Probability matching is the tendency to predict outcomes in accordance with their actual contingencies in a binary choice task. It is, however, a suboptimal response if the aim is to maximize correct predictions. I review two theories that attempt to explain why probability matching occurs: the pattern-search hypothesis and dual-systems theory. These theories are tested in two studies which suggest that dual-systems theory provides a better account of probability matching behavior. Studies 3, 4, and 5 then provide evidence for an extension of the dual-systems theory, called expectation matching, which is intended to explain why probability matching is the intuitive response to a binary choice problem.

Description

Keywords

Probability Matching, Binary Choice Task

LC Subject Headings

Citation

Collections