Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorPananos, Athanasios
dc.date.accessioned2016-09-26 17:32:00 (GMT)
dc.date.available2016-09-26 17:32:00 (GMT)
dc.date.issued2016-09-26
dc.date.submitted2016-09-20
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10012/10905
dc.description.abstractThere exists strong evidence that vaccines are extremely effective in the prevention of pediatric infectious disease, yet despite this evidence, vaccine refusal is still popular amongst some parents. Existing mathematical models of disease and vaccinating dynamics are parsimonious with post scare empirical data, yet lack the ability to predict when a scare will occur. This thesis frames the problem of predicting when a vaccine scare is imminent as a problem in bifurcation theory and critical transitions theory. As a system of differential equations nears a bifurcation point, the system experiences critical slowing down, a loss in resilience to small perturbations from equilibrium. This loss in resilience manifests itself as an increase in the variance and lag-1 autocorrelation of the time series. Using an existing model for vaccinating dynamics, I demonstrate this critical slowing as the system bifurcates from a state of high vaccine coverage to a state of suboptimal vaccine coverage. I also demonstrate that critical slowing can be detected in the population by using the social media site Twitter and Google Trends data. It will be shown that leading to the 2014 measles outbreak in Disneyland, a statistically significant increase in the lag-1 autocorrelation in the time series of tweets with anti-vaccine sentiment is detected. Post outbreak, a statistically significant decrease in the lag-1 autocorrelation is detected, suggesting that population comes sufficiently close to a vaccine scare to elicit outbreaks in those individuals who ceased vaccinating. The results of this thesis provide new tools to monitor vaccine sentiment and maintain vaccine coverage.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherUniversity of Waterlooen
dc.subjectVaccineen
dc.subjectDiseaseen
dc.subjectBifurcationen
dc.subjectCritical Transitionen
dc.subjectMachine Learningen
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen
dc.titleEarly Warning Signals of Vaccine Scares.en
dc.typeMaster Thesisen
dc.pendingfalse
uws-etd.degree.departmentApplied Mathematicsen
uws-etd.degree.disciplineApplied Mathematicsen
uws-etd.degree.grantorUniversity of Waterlooen
uws-etd.degreeMaster of Mathematicsen
uws.contributor.advisorBauch, Chris
uws.contributor.affiliation1Faculty of Mathematicsen
uws.published.cityWaterlooen
uws.published.countryCanadaen
uws.published.provinceOntarioen
uws.typeOfResourceTexten
uws.peerReviewStatusUnrevieweden
uws.scholarLevelGraduateen


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record


UWSpace

University of Waterloo Library
200 University Avenue West
Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1
519 888 4883

All items in UWSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.

DSpace software

Service outages