International Affairs (Balsillie School of)

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This is the collection for the University of Waterloo's Balsillie School of International Affairs.

Research outputs are organized by type (eg. Master Thesis, Article, Conference Paper).

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A network-based study of ideological conflict in public policy and global governance
(University of Waterloo, 2024-09-25) Piereder, Jinelle; Homer-Dixon, Thomas
Humanity's ability to deal with its vast array of challenges depends on its capacity to understand how ideologies and worldviews inform and interact with decision-making processes. Once relegated to dusty library shelves, and declared “dead” at least twice, ideology seems to be more relevant to global politics then ever. Ideology plays a crucial role in how societies understand, frame, and attempt to solve collective problems; but when viewed as just a unidimensional phenomenon comprised of a few “big isms,” much of ideology’s causal influence/impact gets obscured. Further, existing scholarship tends to study ideology as primarily an individual-level or society-level phenomenon, setting aside questions about social context in the first instance and questions about the inner workings of the mind in the second instance. This paper-based dissertation contributes to the existing scholarship on ideology by (1) synthesizing over a decade’s worth of efforts to map the multidisciplinary field of ideology studies, and (2) by developing a novel framework—grounded in a complexity ontology—to analyze the interconnections between ideologies, discourses, and social networks. Together, the three articles in this dissertation deepen our understanding of how ideologies shape and are shaped by the social and discourse networks in which they are embedded. By studying the role of these interacting elements in multiple governance contexts, the dissertation further shows how and why ideology matters across policymaking scales and spheres of influence. The main goal of Article #1 is to provide a comprehensive look at the many different ways that ideology is conceptualized, understood, and studied. Building on several major mapping efforts, this chapter synthesizes the field of ideology studies using an Ideology Research Matrix comprised of three dimensions: the methodological approaches used, the underlying ontological commitments of scholars, and the typical research goals and designs that accompany those methods and commitments. After engaging systematically with the literature via the Matrix, the paper discusses the problems with current approaches to ideology, especially around the particularly difficult challenge of studying ideological change. The paper calls for a more integrated approach and makes the case for a complex reflexive systems approach to conceptualizing and studying ideology. It fleshes out the details and benefits of a complexity ontology in this context, particularly around linking causation and social context through identifying feedback loops across social and discursive scales. Grounded in this much-needed complex systems shift, this article presents a new conceptual framework of trans-scalar ideological networks—and a proposed methodology that uses networks as both metaphor and modelling tool—that integrates the perspectives of existing ideology scholarship and moves forward our understanding of ideological change. In Article #2, my co-authors and I operationalize the framework developed in Article #1 using a case study of energy transition discourse in Canadian Parliamentary proceedings. Skepticism about Canada's ability to meet its Paris Agreement targets, anxieties over economic and energy security, and major concerns about the impact of an energy transition on key vulnerable or marginalized communities have all led to a wide range of ideologically charged priorities for addressing the climate crisis and distributing the costs/benefits of energy transition. This chapter presents the first operationalization of the trans-scalar ideological networks framework, focusing on the energy transition discourse. The article first examines existing literature related to ideology and climate change, identifying gaps where it can contribute. It then argues that tracing "how and why ideological discourses have the influence they do" is both more difficult and more important in non-polarized contexts, as ideological conflict and influence are still at play in more subtle ways that are not well-captured by existing methods. As the ideological differences between groups advancing different goals, priorities, and policies become less pronounced (e.g., between climate change "believers" and "deniers"), the task of tracing or measuring "how and why ideological discourses have the influence they do" becomes more nuanced and difficult, but just as important. Using my framework, the chapter demonstrates a multi-directional approach to studying ideology: first outside-in (using Discourse Network Analysis), then inside-out (using Cognitive-Affective Mapping). The chapter identifies several emergent ideological “camps” and dives deeper into “representative actors” from each camp and examines their ideologies from the inside-out, using CAM. Overall, the paper supports my claim that ideological heterogeneity—just as much as ideological polarization—matters for how ideology influences decision-making. Article #3 examines a second case study, civil society advocacy efforts leading to the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). The chapter operationalizes the trans-scalar ideological networks framework to study the ATT, making the case that multi-scale approaches are especially useful in studying these complex international advocacy spaces where ideology helps shape governance outcomes. In the more narrative-based section, the chapter describes the post-Cold War background of arms control advocacy, as well as the key actors and events that led to the ATT being proposed and eventually passed. It demonstrates and explores the ideologies of four key organizations using CAM and compares insights across the four CAMs generated. It also maps the broader issue network using social network analysis (the outside-in approach) and analyzes how the CAM insights inform/explain some aspects of the network structure. Compared to Article #2, this article offers another way to operationalize the trans-scalar ideological networks framework, showing that the framework is well-suited to more "established" cases in addition to more "active" ones (like the energy transition discourse case). Finally, the chapter argues that new developments in ideology studies—including my trans-scalar ideological networks framework—can help address many of the challenges that other ideationally-focused sub-disciplines face, especially around the supposed "belief vs. strategy" dichotomy.
Mapping the Complexity of Mining & Peacebuilding in Guatemala
(University of Waterloo, 2022-10-13) Silburt, Aviva; Craik, Neil; Homer-Dixon, Thomas
This dissertation examines the intersection between foreign owned mining operations and peacebuilding efforts in Guatemala, responding to a number of academic debates and practical issues. Two mines were comparatively analyzed using complex systems theory and qualitative research methods. Although mining was not a core issue from Guatemala’s 36-year Internal Armed Conflict, it became an issue in Guatemala’s “post-conflict” peacebuilding context. This is because Guatemala prioritized economic development by means of an extractive development model based on foreign investment as a means to implement commitments from peace accords signed in 1996—following the advice of the international community. Mining generated significant controversy and conflict in ways that are both shaped by and impacted peacebuilding efforts. Mining reinforced pre-existing inequalities and exclusion in the communities near the two mines examined. These were important underlying issues from Guatemala’s Internal Armed Conflict that peacebuilding sought, but failed, to address. These issues characterized the dynamics of mining-related conflict in different ways at the two mines that reflected important differences in each town’s history and situation in Guatemalan society. In this sense, peacebuilding issues shaped mining-related conflict. In doing so, however, mining also made these issues more difficult to address as part of peacebuilding, and thereby impacted peacebuilding. That said, mining conflicts are just one of several issues that Guatemala faces in its post-conflict peacebuilding context, many of which are also a consequence inequality and exclusion. These various other issues were interconnected with each other and formed part of a positive feedback loop that reinforced inequalities and exclusion in context of each mine. This complicated the dynamics of mining conflict and compounded each issue and the situation overall in ways that ultimately undermined longer-term sustained efforts needed to address inequalities and exclusion as part of peacebuilding. International influence in both Guatemala’s peacebuilding progress and mining governance framework undermined Guatemala’s ability develop capacity and accountability to overcome its peacebuilding challenges and appropriately govern the extractive sector.
Modeling climate change impacts at the science-policy boundary
(University of Waterloo, 2017-01-20) Beck, Marisa; Homer-Dixon, Thomas
Climate change is a daunting policy challenge, where decision-makers must respond to a high-uncertainty and high-risk problem in an environment with a diverse multitude of stakeholders and unresolved ethical questions. For the past 25 years, integrated assessment models (IAMs) of global climate change have become standard tools for informing climate policy. IAMs are computer models that combine representations of biophysical systems and socioeconomic systems; they are used to simulate the causes, dynamics, and impacts of climate change. While IAMs are typically developed by scientists, their explicit purpose is to generate policy-relevant information. In this paper-based dissertation, I use a pragmatic model of science-policy relations as a theoretical and normative framework to examine the production and application of IAMs. My research contributes conceptually and empirically to the existing scholarship on the role of scientific models in policymaking. Together, the three articles included in this dissertation advance our understanding of the various inputs and outputs of policy-relevant scientific models, using climate change IAMs as a case study. In Article #1, my co-author and I investigate the sources and consequences of the numerous difficult modeling choices that IAM developers are required to make as a result of the pervasive uncertainty—both scientific and ethical—surrounding this topic. We argue that these choices are made in particular epistemic, ethical, and social contexts. Correspondingly, we illuminate the epistemic, ethical, and political consequences of these choices. Finally, adopting a co-productionist approach, we suggest that past modeling choices may constrain future model development by setting epistemic benchmarks, establishing ethical norms, and creating biases in academic publishing and policy application. We review and build on findings from various literatures to unpack the complex intersection of science, ethics, and politics that IAMs occupy. This leads us to suggest avenues for future empirical and theoretical research that may enable an integrated epistemic-ethical-political understanding of IAMs. Such transparency is necessary to judge the usefulness of IAMs in supporting climate change policymaking that is scientifically sound, ethically fair, and politically acceptable. Articles #2 and #3 extrapolate practical consequences from the conceptual groundwork established in Article #1. In Article #2, I apply a narrative research approach to examine how values and beliefs embedded in modeling choices may influence policy. I draw on research on the role of storytelling in scientific modeling, as well as a growing literature in policy studies investigating the influence of stories on policy outcomes. These two streams of research have yet to be connected in an investigation of how scientific models, in addition to delivering numerical results, also influence policy through the stories that are told with them. In this paper, I present a framework for analyzing the composition and content of policy-relevant stories produced with scientific models. I argue that an appreciation of these modeled stories is essential for a full understanding how models are used in policymaking—whether they are models of climate change, public health, or the economy. For illustration, I apply the framework to the analysis of stories produced with the DICE model, arguably the most prominent IAM of global climate change. In Article #3, I provide a normative, empirically grounded analysis of two of the major critiques of IAMs: that they are a) arbitrary and b) value-laden, and therefore unfit for policy use. Interviews and participant observations with IAM developers reveal that, indeed, many factors other than scientific theory and empirical observations influence modeling choices. The modelers also recognize that some of their choices in the modeling process do have a partially normative character. So, do these findings validate the above critiques and disqualify IAMs from policy use? Not necessarily. Current work in philosophy of science demonstrates the need for a more nuanced approach to this question, revealing that the ideal of objectively true and value-free models is unattainable—indeed, in some aspects, perhaps even undesirable. Instead, models should be evaluated with respect to their `fit for purpose.' Uncertain and value-laden assumptions should be addressed with transparency and conditionality. Adopting such a pragmatist perspective on IAMs, this paper concludes that IAMs are a useful, albeit imperfect, tool for assessing climate policy. Practical recommendations for how to enhance the usefulness of IAMs for policy are provided.
Supporting uncertain policy decisions for global catastrophic risks
(University of Waterloo, 2021-05-14) Janzwood, Scott; Homer-Dixon, Thomas
The three articles in this dissertation explore the contested, multi-dimensional concept of uncertainty and how experts and decision makers collectively grapple with it at governance organizations tasked with addressing global catastrophic risks (GCRs). This project examines the foundational concept of uncertainty and then explores “decision support” dynamics at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the primary knowledge brokers in the governance regimes addressing planetary defense and climate change respectively. Article #1 begins by examining the contested, multidimensional concept of uncertainty itself. The paper presents a critical analysis of the conceptual literature on uncertainty that has become increasingly standardized behind the tripartite distinction between uncertainty location, uncertainty level, and the nature of uncertainty. I argue that the epistemological foundation on which this framework is built is both vague and inconsistent. Perhaps most surprising is its exclusion of the term “confidence” – which has become the dominant perspective for characterizing and communicating uncertainty in many disciplines and policy contexts today. This article reinterprets the tripartite framework from a Bayesian epistemological perspective, which views uncertainty as a mental phenomenon arising from “confidence deficits” as opposed to the ill-defined notion of “knowledge deficits” that dominates the literature. I propose a more consistent set of rules for determining when uncertainty may or may not be quantified, a clarification of the terms “ignorance” and “recognized ignorance,” and an expansion of the “level” dimension to include levels of uncertainty reducibility. Lastly, I challenge the usefulness of the conventional distinction made between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and propose a more useful distinction based on developments in the field of complexity science that highlights the unique properties of complex reflexive (i.e. human) systems. Article #2 explores the decision support process of uncertainty reduction. “Mission-oriented” public research organizations like NASA invest in R&D to improve decision-making around complex policy problems, thus producing “public value.” However, the estimation of benefits produced by such R&D projects is notoriously difficult to predict and measure – a challenge that is magnified for GCRs. This article explores how public research organizations systematically reduce key uncertainties associated with GCRs. Building off of recent literature highlighting the organizational and political factors that influence R&D priority-setting at public research organizations, this article develops an analytical framework for explaining R&D priority-setting outcomes that integrates the key stages of decision analysis with organizational and political dynamics identified in the literature. This framework is then illustrated with a case study of the NASA planetary defense mission, which addresses the GCR of near-Earth object (asteroid and comet) impacts. The case study reveals how organizational and political factors interact with every stage in the R&D priority-setting process – from initial problem definition to project selection. Lastly, the article discusses the extent to which the case study can inform R&D priority-setting at other mission-oriented organizations, particularly those addressing GCRs. Article #3 investigates the decision support process of uncertainty communication. The uncertainty language framework used by the IPCC is designed to encourage the consistent characterization and communication of uncertainty between chapters, working groups, and reports. However, the framework has not been updated since 2010, despite criticism that it was applied inconsistently in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and that the distinctions between the framework’s three language scales remain unclear. This article presents a mixed methods analysis of the application – and underlying interpretation – of the uncertainty language framework by IPCC authors in the three special reports published since AR5. First, I present an analysis of uncertainty language term usage in three recent special reports: Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), and The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC). The language usage analysis highlights how many of the trends identified in previous reports – like the significant increase in the use of confidence terms – have carried forward into recent assessments. These observed trends, along with ongoing debates in the literature on how to interpret the framework’s three language scales inform an analysis of IPCC author experiences interpreting and implementing the framework. This discussion is informed by interviews with lead authors from the SRCCL and SROCC. Lastly, I propose several recommendations for clarifying the IPCC uncertainty language framework to address persistent sources of confusion highlighted by the authors.
Violence, Conflict, and World Order: Rethinking War with a Complex Systems Approach
(University of Waterloo, 2020-01-23) Lawrence, Michael, 1984-; Homer-Dixon, Thomas
This thesis employs a complex systems approach to argue that the nature of violent conflict coevolves with broader features of world order. The first chapter demonstrates that International Relations and Comparative Politics – the predominant fields in the study of violent conflict – are insufficiently systemic to elucidate recent events. International Relations theories do not endogenize the formation of actors, struggle with systemic change, and remain unproductively fixated on anarchy. Comparative Politics focuses inordinately on ‘domestic’ causes of violent conflict and retains the baggage of modernization thinking. At the same time, the very concept of ‘war’ unproductively narrows the study of violent conflict. After identifying several key ‘macrotrends’ in warfare, the chapter proposes conceptual distinctions between violence, conflict, and order to better understand long-term variations. Chapter Two develops an ontology of world order based in complex systems thinking. After defining world order and exploring the nature of systems, the account conceives system structure as an emergent phenomenon in three senses. First, it draws upon structuration theory and complex adaptive systems thinking to explain the internal organization of collective social agents. It then draws upon political economy and constructivist thought to argue that agents form emergent relational structures by which they constitute, reproduce, and transform each other. Finally, this chapter argues that worldviews, institutions, and technologies constitute ‘emergent schematic assemblages’ as diffuse social entities in themselves. This ontology ultimately highlights actor differentiation, interaction capacity, and emergent schematic assemblages as core features of world order. The third chapter applies this ontology to argue that there are three broad sets of conflicts embedded in the system structure of world order which each evolve, erupt into violence of a particular character, and differentiate social actors in ways shaped by the broader features of world order (particularly its worldviews, institutions, technologies, and interaction capacity). World order shapes the consequent violent conflicts, but those violent conflicts also reshape world order, generating a co-evolutionary relationship. This framework helps explain several major trends in the nature of violent conflict by highlighting systemic influences on the formation of units and their vertical differentiation. Chapter Four further develops the links between globalization and violence by examining the rise of organized crime and of reactionary fundamentalist identity movements. It argues that these examples suggest possible future trajectories in the co-evolution of world order and violent conflict by challenging statehood as a basic organizing logic and by producing violence that is ill captured by basic notions of war, yet rivals its lethality.

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Browsing International Affairs (Balsillie School of) by Author "Homer-Dixon, Thomas"