Global food security and agricultural land management represent two urgent and intimately related challenges that humans must face. We quantify the changes in the global agricultural land footprint if the world were to ...

It is widely recognized that coupled socio-ecological dynamics can be qualitatively different from the dynamics of social or ecological systems in isolation from one another. The influence of the type of ecological dynamics ...

Dynamic transmission models of influenza are often used in decision-making to identify which vaccination strategies might best reduce influenza-associated health and economic burdens. Our goal was to use laboratory confirmed ...

Early warning signals of sudden regime shifts are a widely studied phenomenon for their ability to quantify a system’s proximity to a tipping point to a new and contrasting dynamical regime. However, this effect has been ...

Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand ...

Pair approximation models have been used to study the spread of infectious diseases in spatially distributed host populations, and to explore disease control strategies such as vaccination and case isolation. Here we ...

A within-host model of the spread of tuberculosis is proposed here where the emergence of drug resistance and bacterial dormancy are simultaneously combined. We consider both sensitive and resistant strains of tuberculosis ...

Human and environmental systems are often treated as existing in isolation from one another, whereas in fact they are often two parts of a single, coupled human-environment system. Developing theoretical models of coupled ...

The controversy over whether vaccine-targeted HPV types will be replaced by other oncogenic, non-vaccine-targeted types remains unresolved. This is in part because little is known about the ecology of HPV types. Patient ...

Previous mathematical models of spatial farm-to-farm transmission of foot and mouth disease (FMD) have explored the impacts of control measures such as culling and vaccination during a single outbreak in a country normally ...